The all-star break is a good time to review the Rockets' statistics. Early in the season would have been too early as the team was still in transition -- trying to redefine itself in the absence of both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. When I look at basketball stats, I prefer to analyze them on a per-minute, or per-40-minutes, basis. The three traditional stats -- points, rebounds and assists -- are presented on that basis in the table below for the Rockets' key, "rotation," players. (click to enlarge the table)
Houston Rockets 2009-2010 Production per 40 Minutes Played
Houston Rockets Per Minute Statistics
Carl Landry Tops in Production
Interestingly, the number one and two scorers,
In the long term, the contribution of earnings growth and dividends to total return dominates the contribution made by changes in p/e ratio. We saw in an earlier post that changes in the price/earnings (p/e) ratio had a disproportionate impact on yearly stock market returns. In this post, we will see that over time earnings growth and dividends win out.
The Contribution of Earnings Growth and Dividends to 50-Year Stock Market (Dow) Total Returns
Contribution to 50-Year Stock Market Returns
The stacked bar chart above (click to expand) shows the market's annualized total return for 50-year periods beginning in 1920; the segments of the bar show
Is it possible to forecast the stock market return for the next 10 years? If so, how do you do it? In Projecting Stock Market Returns we saw the results of a simple forecasting model that seemed to produce promising results. Below is the resulting graph introduced and discussed in that post (click to expand). In this post, I'll describe how the model estimates future returns.